LSAP could lose two seats in southern district

The Luxembourg Socialist Workers' Party (LSAP) would lose two seats in its southern bastion, while the Christian Social People's Party (CSV) would gain two seats if the next legislative elections in Luxembourg were held next Sunday.

This would mean the CSV, with 10 seats, would have twice as many MPs from the biggest voting district in the country than the LSAP. 

The Sonndesfro (Sunday question) of the survey asked people what party they would give most votes to if the elections were held the "following Sunday".

More than 1,807 people of the southern election district were surveyed.

The Democratic Party would also lose one seat (from three to two), while the Left (déi Lénk) would gain one (from one to two).

Compared with the elections in 2013, the CSV would gain 4.5 percentage points and come in with 36.7% of the votes.

The Left would gain 2 percentage points, the Greens (déi Gréng) 0.9 points and the Alternative Democratic Reform Party (ADR) 0.2 points. 

The biggest support loss would hit the LSAP (-4.6 percentage points), which would come in with 20.6%.

The DP would also lose 2.7 percentage points and be left with 10%.

The Communist Party Luxembourg (KPL) would come in with 2.2% (-0.2 percentage points), while the Party for Integral Democracy (PID) would have 1.1% left (-0.3 points). 

May-December

There were no major changes between the May and the December surveys, with the most notable difference being the ADR, losing 2.1 percentage points over the last six months.

The CSV continued its ascent, with an increase of 0.8 pecentage points, while the Communist Party Luxembourg (KPL) lost 0.6 percentage points. 

The seat distribution remains the same in December as it was in May.

Politmonitor

The Sonndesfro was carried out by TNS Ilres on behalf the Luxemburger Wort and RTL.

The survey is a mood indicator over several months, not an election forecast.

Between the end of May and the end of November 2017, 4,726 eligible residents of Luxembourgish nationality over the age of 18 were surveyed (centre: 1,393, south: 1,807, north: 872, east: 654).

There is no weighting of the raw data. Absolute and proportional corrections guarantee the best possible result.

The methodology information was submitted to ALIA, the Luxembourgish independent audiovisual authority.