Virus cases trend downwards in Luxembourg

A drop in the number of coronavirus tests during the Christmas week could explain a sharply lower tally of newly detected cases, but the amount of people in quarantine and in hospital also fell, providing a glimmer of hope the pandemic is peaking.

The number of people testing positive for Covid-19 dropped by more than half last week - to 1,267 from 2,681 - the health department said on Wednesday, while people at risk of catching the disease because they had been in touch with these patients fell by almost two-thirds.

The news come after stricter measures, including a curfew between 2100 hrs and 0600 hrs the next morning took effect on Saturday.

Luxembourg recorded 326 new infections on Wednesday, below the 500-case threshold that earlier led the government to impose harsher restrictions, and another 6 deaths, taking the overall death toll to 495.

There were 5,301 people in isolation last week - meaning they had tested positive for the virus - and 4,342 in quarantine for having been in contact with a known patient. These numbers constitute a drop of 23% and 49% respectively compared to a week earlier, the data show.

Part of the explanation may be that the number of tests carried out in the Christmas week was low. But there were some other grounds for optimism, as the number of positive cases among all tests stood at 2.54%, down from 3.43%. This indicates the virus might be less widespread.

The number of people in hospital dropped as well, with 135 patients in regular care - down from 181 - and 37 in intensive care, from 43.

Analysis of wastewater showed that the virus was still occurring at a high level, but analysts said they had seen a steady downward trend over the last few weeks. Moreover, the rate of infections for which a source could not be clearly identified was down by more than a quarter.

Finally, the effective reproduction rate, which indicates how many people each infected person passes the virus on to, decreased from 0.87 to 0.39.  This would indicate that a group of a hundred people would only infect another 39, meaning the virus is on its way out.

However, large numbers of people continue to die, with 37 deaths recorded during the Christmas. At 495 fatalities, the death toll is approaching the 500 mark, as the second wave is hitting the country much harder than the first one. If the number reaches 600, it would mean that roughly one of 1,000 residents has died from the virus.

Whilst Luxembourg may have passed a peak, other European countries such as France and the United Kingdom are mulling more severe regional restrictions as cases are soaring.

Luxembourg started vaccinating residents on Monday, with healthcare workers and vulnerable people getting the first shots. It is not clear how many people will first receive the treatment, with one estimate by a Luxembourg security body showing there is only enough of it for 6,000 people by the end of January, and perhaps even less.

"A total of 9,700 vaccines have been delivered to Luxembourg, which will make it possible to vaccinate around 4,850 people in a first phase," the government said in a press release on Wednesday.

Overall, the country has now vaccinated 1,200 people in between 28 and 30 December. The vaccine needs to be injected twice to be effective, and these people will get their booster shot on 18 January.

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