Netanyahu urges West not to appease Iran

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu used an annual security conference in Munich – site of the West's historic appeasement of Nazi Germany before World War II – to warn of Iran's alleged attempts to dominate the Middle East, and Israel's resolve to prevent it.

Iranian aggression "is in my judgment the greatest threat to our world,” Netanyahu said Sunday, urging leaders not to repeat the mistakes of Munich negotiators who failed to stop Adolf Hitler in 1938 for fear of provoking a war. Rather than preventing conflict, the Israeli leader said, their inaction "made a wider war inevitable and far more costly."

Netanyahu has used other high-profile platforms, including the US Congress and United Nations General Assembly, to highlight the existential threat if Iran develops nuclear weapons. On Sunday, he focused equally on Iran's conventional military entrenchment in Syria and the dangers it creates.

Israel feels increasingly abandoned as regional partners prioritise their often conflicting interests in Syria's seven-year civil war, now that a common enemy – Islamic State – is largely defeated. That has left Israeli leaders with an unpalatable choice: Tolerate a permanent Iranian military presence on their border, or risk going to war to prevent it.

Escalation risk

Netanyahu said Israel has stayed on the sidelines of the Syrian war to this point, acting only to stop transfers of advanced weapons bound for Hezbollah, a Shiite political party that serves as Iran's proxy militia in Lebanon. But he said that could change if Iran establishes a new reality on the ground in Syria.

If President Bashar al-Assad allows the Iranian military to entrench itself in Syria, "then obviously he is challenging us to a different position than we've had," Netanyahu said. Israel is "absolutely resolute in our determination to stop and roll back the aggression of Iran’s regime."

Last week, for the first time since 1982, Israel lost a combat aircraft to hostile fire as it returned from air strikes in Syria. Israel's retaliation in the incident, which began with the reported infiltration of an Iranian military drone into Israeli territory, destroyed as much as half of Syria's air-defense system, according to the Israel Defense Forces.

'Iran Itself'

In Munich, Netanyahu held up a piece of metal he said came from the drone and asked if Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif recognized it. Iran denies it sent the drone into Israel.

"Take back with you a message for the tyrants of Tehran: 'Do not test Israel's resolve,'" Netanyahu said. "Israel will act not just against Iran’s proxies that are attacking us, but against Iran itself."

Zarif, addressing the audience later Sunday, said Netanyahu's "cartoonish circus" didn't "deserve the dignity of a response."

Israeli officials believe the US and Europe have yet to fully grasp the likelihood of military escalation. US reluctance to enter the war in Syria has left it with insufficient force on the ground to dictate terms to Iran.

Many Arab nations share Netanyahu's concern over the Iranian threat, but won’t publicly support Israel for domestic political reasons.

Russia has more leverage to assure Israeli interests in Syria, and Netanyahu has held multiple discussions with Putin to ensure Israeli jets can attack when necessary in Syria without clashing with Russian forces. But Moscow appears to be prioritizing ties with Iran, which is emerging as its strategic partner.

Saudi vs Iran

Without mentioning Israel, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al Jubeir blasted Iran in a conference speech that accused the Islamic republic of regional expansionism and a long history of supporting terrorism.

"The world has to extract a price from Iran for its aggressive behavior," Al Jubeir said. "There has to be a fundamental change in the Iranian regime for Iran to be treated as a normal country."

Netanyahu's calls to "fix or nix" the international deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program have failed to sway much of the trans-Atlantic security establishment represented in Munich. He's hoping a warning on the dangers of escalation in Syria, already the source of a seismic refugee shock in Europe, will get a more sympathetic hearing.

This month alone, US aircraft killed as many as 200 Russian mercenaries as they attacked Kurdish forces in eastern Syria; Turkey threatened to expand its invasion of northern Syria to take on Kurds embedded with US advisers; and Israel shot down the Iranian drone.

Land corridor

Of most concern to Israel are Iran's efforts to establish a land corridor to Lebanon via Iraq and Syria, where Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders oversee thousands of militants.

Israel's perception that the balance of forces in the region is tipping against it is well-founded, according to Emile Hokayem, senior Middle East fellow at the International Institute for Security Studies, a London think tank.

"It’s undeniable that Iran has been building up a serious military capability in Syria, which basically doubles the length of a possible front line in any possible future Hezbollah-Israel showdown," Hokayem said.

"Just from the point of view of the Iron Dome system, it's unlikely to be able to absorb missiles coming from such a wide front line."